Breaking down our Valero Texas Open DraftKings picks with plays and fades at each pricing tier and building a PGA DFS golf lineup.
The final build-up to The Masters, the PGA Tour heads to TPC San Antonio this week for the Valero Texas Open. Oftentimes, because of its spot on the calendar, we don’t see the greatest fields at this event. That is not the case this week, though, with the likes of Rory McIlroy, defending champion Jordan Spieth, past champion Corey Conners, beefy Bryson DeChambeau and many more in the mix.
Even with that, it’s an interesting week to tackle the DraftKings picks for the PGA DFS slate. You’ll need to find value in the lower pricing tiers if you want to use some of the big names in your lineup. The good news is that there is undoubtedly value to be found, so you won’t be up a creek with no paddle.
Iain MacMillan of BetSided recently went over his dark horse picks and that could be a good resource for you to find some value. Obviously, we’ll also have our top plays and fades for every pricing tier to help comprise our Valero Texas Open DraftKings picks before building our PGA DFS lineup. Let’s get into it.
DraftKings picks for Valero Texas Open PGA DFS lineup: Top Plays
$10,000: Rory McIlroy ($11,200) – Considering Hideki Matsuyama is my pick to win, Rory McIlroy being the DraftKings pick in this range might be a surprise. I still like Matsuyama but acknowledge the risk that’s there that I don’t totally see with McIlory. Rory has been striping the ball and reeling off top-10 finishes with ease. I’m not sure about his win equity but I think the floor is so unbelievably high that he’s the best pick in the $10K range. Also Consider: Hideki Matsuyama ($10,800)
$9,000: Chris Kirk ($9,400) – You’re missing out if you’re not riding Chris Kirk right now. He missed the cut at THE PLAYERS but the weather at TPC Sawgrass is leading me to write that tournament off in looking at form. Prior to that, he finished top 10 in his previous two starts. Moreover, Kirk has finished top 10 at this event in two of his last three starts. I love him to continue showing up big and paying off this price. Also consider: Corey Conners ($9,800), Maverick McNealy ($9,500)
$8,000: Charley Hoffman ($8,200) – Based purely on form, this probably looks crazy as Hoffman has missed cuts galore in 2022 and seems to be nowhere close to right. Yet, his history at TPC San Antonio is near unmatched. He rolls out of bed and finishes top 10 here and I’m willing to stake something in a strong $8K range on him to not deviate from that. Also consider: Adam Hadwin ($8,900), Kevin Streelman ($8,700), Luke List ($8,500), Davis Riley ($8,400), Russell Knox ($8,300), Patton Kizzire ($8,000)
$7,000: Matthew NeSmith ($7,100) – Again dismissing THE PLAYERS, NeSmith’s other two starts in his last three wore a top 5 at the Valspar ant T25 at the Honda. He’s ball-striking the heck out of the ball right now and his putter hasn’t been a nemesis, which has been the case in his career at times. In that form at a place where you need to hit greens and be accurate, his price feels too low and should be taken advantage of. Also consider: Rasmus Hojgaard ($7,900), Matt Kuchar ($7,800), Brendan Steele ($7,600), Lucas Glover ($7,400), Brian Stuard ($7,200), Matthias Schwab ($7,000)
$6,000: Tyler Duncan ($6,500) – Ducan is my longshot pick to win this week and, while that might be far-fetched, I like where he’s at right now with three straight finishes of T35 or better. He’s gaining strokes across the board in his recent form and could be as safe of a play as you’ll possible find in the middle of the $6K range. Also Consider: Nate Lashley ($6,900), Austin Smotherman ($6,800), Doc Redman ($6,700), Peter Uihlein ($6,000)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGQ2ASd8KC4?feature=oembed
DraftKings picks for Valero Texas Open PGA DFS lineup: Top Fades
$10,000: Jordan Spieth and Bryson DeChambeau ($10,600 and $10,200) – My thoughts on DeChambeua were covered in my preview as I’m betting him to miss the cut. As for Spieth, BetSided’s Iain MacMillan is fading him hard this week and it’s hard to disagree. Here’s what he said in the article detailing why Spieth is not the guy this week.
He finished T60 at the WM Phoenix Open, T26 at the Genesis Invitational, missed the cut at The Players Championship, and then failed to advance to the bracket stage of the WGC-Match Play Tournament this past weekend, going just 1-2 in the group stage.
Furthermore, his statistics leave a lot to be desired. Here’s how he ranks in each key area:
- Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee – 62nd
- Strokes Gained: Approach the Green – 93rd
- Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green -110th
- Strokes Gained: Putting -141st
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – 72nd
- Total Strokes Gained – 91st
For a guy whose known for his short game, ranking outside the top 100 in both chipping and putting is a huge cause for concern.
Even as the past champion, save yourself the trouble of having Spieth in your lineups this week.
$9,000: Tony Finau ($9,100) – I don’t know when we’re going to see pricing truly reflect what Finau is at this current moment but it’s certainly not this week. After going on a tear last year and even before that, he’s lost in the wilderness right now with his entire game not living up to his admittedly high standards. There’s no way I can look at the $9K range and think he’s a viable option.
$8,000: Jhonaattan Vegas ($8,600) – Vegas has displayed some great form as of late, finishing T27 at the Valspar and then in the top five at Puntacana. However, that’s raising his price a little bit and he’s been far from consistent throughout his career. He’ll be motivated trying to make a Masters run but I don’t buy it, especially in a range that I’m particularly fond of. In fact, fading Vegas probably has more to do with those around him than the player himself.
$7,000: Rickie Fowler ($7,700) – In the simplest terms, this current iteration of Rickie Fowler doesn’t offer enough upside for me to consider him with the guys he’s around in this price range. He’s been making cuts but hasn’t finished better than 40th since October at the CJ Cup. There is legitimate upside throughout the $7K range and Fowler isn’t on that level so I’m not going to be having any stock in him.
Valero Texas Open: Best DraftKings golf lineup
- Rory McIlroy ($11,200)
- Chris Kirk ($9,400)
- Charley Hoffman ($8,200)
- Patton Kizzire ($8,000)
- Matthew NeSmith ($7,100)
- Peter Uihlein ($6,000)
The top of this lineup is designed with a simple effort to try and maximize what we’re going to get from these players without incurring too much risk. I truly believe Rory, Kirk and Hoffman have win equity but, especially at this course, have a floor that’s safe.
Because I tend to build tournament lineups, I’m taking big swings at the bottom. Kizzire has been trending nicely and could pop up in this field, the same of which is true with NeSmith. As for Uihlein, he has not been playing like a dead minimum player with two top-40 finishes on the PGA Tour and a second-place showing on the Korn Ferry Tour in his past two starts. I’m taking that misprice and using it to my advantage so I can build the rest of this lineup.