Breaking down our Arnold Palmer Invitational DraftKings picks with plays and fades at each pricing tier and building a PGA DFS golf lineup.
There couldn’t be more different tournaments on the PGA Tour than The Honda Classic and Arnold Palmer Invitational as we move from last week to this week. That applies to play styles, that applies to the strength of the field (it’s far better this year), and it also applies to building a winning DraftKings PGA DFS lineup.
We did well navigating the tricky field at a tricky course last week. Our DraftKings picks and lineup yielded a 6-of-6 making the cut, which led to finishing 555th out of 35,671 entries in the tournament I played in, good for just over four times our entry in winnings. That’s what we like to see.
What do you say we do it again? These are our plays and fades from each pricing tier on DraftKings for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
DraftKings picks for Arnold Palmer Invitational PGA DFS lineup: Top Plays
$10,000: Rory McIlroy ($11,100) – This was going to be pretty obvious if you’ve kept up with the picks so far this week. I’m all-in on Rory this week at Bay Hill, a place he’s won and that suits his strengths and weaknesses beautifully. I’m on him to win, so is Iain MacMillan of BetSided, so are lots of people. You could try to pivot, but I think you’d be missing out.
$9,000: Tyrell Hatton ($9,300) – Hatton is 100 percent a sneaky value this week. I love the $9K range, for sure, but the Englishman is a past winner here who has been playing well across the pond on the DP World Tour in the 2022 calendar year. His complete game plays well, but here in particular, making him my favorite play of this price range. Also consider: Will Zalatoris ($9,400), Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,200), Marc Leishman ($9,100)
$8,000: Cameron Tringale ($8,000) – The one concern with Tringale is that he withdrew from The Honda last week, so that could be a problem. With that said, he’s been popping in a big way in the 2021-22 season and has the distance and overall solid game to compete at Bay Hill. Throw in that he’s at the bottom of the pricing range and I like him even more. Also consider: Sam Burns ($8,800), Russell Henley ($8,600), Paul Casey ($8,300), Keith Mitchell ($8,100)
$7,000: Chris Kirk ($7,500) – Kirk is another one that both Iain and I have our eyes on this week, so I love him being in this pricing range. He’s been a birdie-maker at Bay Hill, which is highly advantageous at this venue. There are some great options at literally the exact same price as Kirk but he’s definitely my favorite of the trio (the other two would be great plays too, though). Also consider: Maverick McNealy ($7,800), Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,700), Luke List ($7,500), Cameron Young ($7,500), Sebastian Munoz ($7,000)
$6,000: Lee Hodges ($6,600) – As long as you can get the image of him putting out of a bunker from your head, you have to like Hodges and what he’s been showing. He was T-9 at The Honda last week, top-40 at the Genesis, and top-five at The American Express. In the $6K range, you have to incur a bit of risk. That’s present, but I love the upside Hodges offers the most. Also Consider: Aaron Wise ($6,900), Adam Svensson ($6,700), Taylor Pendrith ($6,500)
DraftKings picks for Arnold Palmer Invitational PGA DFS lineup: Top Fades
$10,000: Jon Rahm ($11,400) – This feels absurd to write but I’m fading the No. 1 player in the world. If this was the Rahm we saw in the heart of last season, I wouldn’t even remotely consider fading him. Yet, Rahm’s around the green and work with the putter have been troubling of late. In a strong field, particularly in PGA DFS play, I can’t justify paying more than I would for Rory to take Rahm when there are legitimate questions.
$9,000: Sungjae Im ($9,900) – Overall this season, Im has been playing pretty well with four top-10 finishes. However, I wasn’t huge on what I saw from him at Genesis and then he missed the cut at The Honda Classic, a place he has historically had good finishes at. That worries me and, with him at the top of his tier, I’m going to pass on having him in my lineups.
$8,000: Billy Horschel ($8,900) – Full disclosure, this is a gut feeling. Horschel has been playing terrific golf with a T-16 last week being his worst finish in his last three starts. As much of a veteran grinder as he is, though, he has often been due for a letdown after stretches like that. With the strength of the field and a strong $8K range, I’m going to pass on having him in my lineups.
$7,000: Corey Conners ($7,600) – Not having Conners in any lineups feels like sacrilege because the Canadian is someone I often gravitate towards. Unfortunately, the game just hasn’t been there for him. Since a T-11 at Sony, Conners has three missed cuts and a T-38 in four starts. I can’t take that form in a field like the one at the API, so just pass on Conners until he figures it out again.
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Best DraftKings golf lineup
- Rory McIlroy ($11,100)
- Tyrell Hatton ($9,300)
- Chris Kirk ($7,500)
- Luke List ($7,500)
- Cameron Young ($7,500)
- Sebastian Muñoz ($7,000)
This might be a first for me with three players at the exact same price but it works out greatly for this Arnold Palmer Invitational DraftKings lineup. Kirk, List and Young have legitimate win equity with good form overall this year so far. With McIlroy and Hatton as the heavy hitters, that’s huge upside.
Sebastian Muñoz also factors in there. He’s also one of Iain MacMillan’s dark horse picks this week and here’s what he had to say on that.
As I pointed out in my betting preview, you want to target golfers who are good off the tee, and whose strong at 200+ yard approach shots. Munoz checks both of those boxes, especially the latter. He ranks 50th in strokes gained: off-the-tee, and T15 in accuracy from 200+ yards away.
He’s also been playing some solid golf as of late, finishing T39 at the Farmers Insurance Open, then following it up with a T23 at the WM Phoenix Open and a T21 at the Genesis Invitational.
That will play perfectly as the cheapest player in what I feel is a high upside lineup that should give us three straight cashes in tournaments in a row.