A pair of unbeaten British fighters will compete for the undisputed super lightweight title on Saturday. That, though, is pretty much where the similarities between champion Josh Taylor and challenger Jack Catterall end.
Taylor is among the pound-for-pound best fighters in the world and has Jose Ramirez, Regis Prograis, Ivan Baranchyk and Viktor Postol on his résumé. Catterall has nobody close.
Catterall hasn’t even fought since 2020 and hasn’t made the 140-pound super lightweight limit since he weighed 139 3/4 in a unanimous decision victory over Ohara Davies on Oct. 6, 2018.
Not surprisingly, Taylor is a massive -1400 favorite at BetMGM, while Catterall can be had at +700.
Taylor has plenty of potential big fights ahead of him, including one with ex-lightweight champion Teofimo Lopez that should be fairly easy to make given both are promoted by Top Rank.
That means that in addition to being motivated by fighting at home in Glasgow, Scotland, for the first time in three years, Taylor also has competitive reasons not to look past Catterall.
Even for a fighter as complete as Taylor is, it’s far too much to lay -1400, so we will get to that early and skip it. And given I don’t think Catterall has much of a chance, we’re not even going to roll the dice on a small play on the underdog.
It essentially thus comes down to one of three plays: Taylor by decision at +160, Taylor by KO at -150 or Taylor in a specific round, which range from +2500 in Round 1 to +1200 in Rounds 6 through 11.
Picking a specific round is just a crap shoot. Even if you handicap it correctly, too many factors are out of your control to be reasonably certain for a win. For instance, the referee could stop a fight a bit too early or a bit too late, and ruin your play even though you’d looked at it correctly and nailed the round.
So that brings me to either Taylor by decision or Taylor by KO.
Taylor has scored 13 KOs in 18 fights, a strong 72.2 percent knockout rate. Catterall is 26-0, also with 13 KOs, so he hasn’t been KO’d as a pro. He certainly hasn’t fought the likes of Ramirez and Prograis, as Taylor has, so that’s something to consider.
Taylor is a patient fighter who is content to pile up points until he figures out his opponent and can step on the gas. Catterall is a good survivor and shows an awareness in the ring that could help him against a guy like Taylor.
With all of that said, I’ll play two units, or $200, on Taylor to win by decision at +160, hoping to make a $320 profit.
Best bet for Lawrence Okolie vs. Michal Cieslak
On Sunday, champion Lawrence Okolie defends his WBO cruiserweight title in London at the O2 Arena against Michal Cieslak. Okolie is -800, while Cieslak is +450.
This should be a one-sided victory for Okolie, though I think it will go the distance. So I’ll lay the -800, gritting my teeth the entire time, and make a half-unit play on Okolie, with the goal of a $50 profit.