Amir Khan and Kell Brook have been among the handful of the best fighters in their divisions for around a decade.
The key phrase there, though, is “have been.” The British welterweights and long-time rivals are on the back nine of their careers and don’t have much left. And that makes handicapping their fight Saturday on ESPN+ in Manchester, England, very difficult.
Brook is a -175 favorite at BetMGM, with Khan at +125. Brook hasn’t fought since a fourth-round TKO loss to Terence Crawford in November 2020. Khan’s only bout since a sixth-round TKO loss to Crawford on April 20, 2019, was a July 12, 2019, win over Billy Dib.
In their primes, a fight between them would have been a thrilling, nip-and-tuck affair. Now, it’s largely a guess.
Khan’s chin has never been his strong suit, and at this stage of the game, it could be rightly described as a weakness. But Khan hasn’t gotten hit for nearly three years and he changed his training situation, hiring Crawford’s highly respected long-time trainer, Brian “Bomac” McIntyre.
At Thursday’s final news conference, McIntyre chided Brook trainer Dominic Ingle, saying that Brook has nothing left.
It’s typical pre-fight talk and usually not to be taken seriously, but when you’re talking about a pair of 35-year-old boxers with a lot of mileage, there could be a grain of truth to it.
My tendency in cases like this is to go with the better athlete, and that to me is Khan. He’s quicker than Brook and showed good legs in the early part of the Crawford fight. Brook will be the harder hitter, but if Khan can beat him to the punch, particularly with a double- and triple-jab, Brook could be in for a long night.
If the rivalry and emotions get the best of them and it turns into a phone booth fight, it would favor Brook, who is the harder hitter. And Khan has never been known for a great chin.
That leads me to a play on Khan by decision at +333. I could just play Khan to win at +125 and cover myself in the event of the KO, but I question whether Khan will sit down on his punches enough and remain stationary in order to land the combinations he’ll need to finish Brook.
Brook by KO is +125, which is not enough to make me seriously consider taking that.
Best bet for Jaime Munguia vs. D’Mitrius Ballard
•Former super welterweight champion Jaime Munguia, who is 38-0 with 30 KOs, will face D’Mitrius Ballard (21-0-1, 13 KOs) on Saturday in Tijuana, Mexico.
Munguia is a massive favorite and there is zero chance I’ll lay -1600 on him to win, which is the number at BetMGM.
Ballard isn’t well known and Munguia is an ex-champion, which probably made the number artificially high. Ballard is a decent boxer who is trained by Barry Hunter, which means he’ll be well-prepared.
Ballard fights with a high guard and works behind his jab well, but if he’s vulnerable, it’s with an attack to the body.
Munguia is a good and consistent body puncher and a good finisher.
Ballard is durable, though, and has the confidence that comes with being unbeaten, though he hasn’t faced the same caliber of opposition that Munguia has fought.
I’m going to roll the dice and play Munguia by KO in the 10th round at +1600. Munguia by KO is +900 in the eighth and +1000 in the ninth. It’s a big jump to +1600 and that is attractive in a fight that I believe will go 10 rounds.
So I’ll play Munguia by KO in the the 10th at +1600. It’s a risk because picking an exact round is so tough, but Munguia by KO is ridiculously high at -375 and I can’t justify laying that much