There are two meetings to look at on Friday, with Albion Park and Melton getting my attention. Below are the best bets for the respective programs.
Albion Park
Best bet: Race 7, Number 3, Hemsworth
He’ll be short but all things being equal, he’ll be winning. This horse is three from three this time in, winning here first up before a couple of dominant wins at Redcliffe where he has been short in the market and justified it. This horse looks to get the lead quite comfortably here and it should be a relatively painless watch.
Next best: Race 1, Number 4, Whata Sport
He gets his chance to break the maiden tag. He would have won last time out if he had clear air instead of a close-up second. This race looks quite thin on paper so I am expecting a positive steer, taking him straight to the front and dominating proceedings from the top. This horse is hard to beat.
Value: Race 9, Number 8, Hes Sweet
If the cards fall into place for him, he’ll take beating and at likely decent odds. I am banking on the inside horse coming out and leading, giving this guy the leaders back. This horse had a solid NSW prep before racing here around three weeks ago and just had to drag back from the wide gate. If he can get the spot behind the leader, he’ll only run well.
Melton
Best bet: Race 3, Number 1, Tornado Valley
He’s back to defend his Great Southern Star crown and he should get his spot in the final via a heat win here. This horse had a dominant first-up win here before going to Bendigo, where he just went too fast in front and felt the pinch late. He should lead comfortably and prove awfully hard to run down.
Next best: Race 6, Number 6, La Serena
She is one of the more in-form mares racing at the moment and despite a wide gate, she is clearly the horse to beat. She has produced sizzling change-up speed in the back end of her races to win her last couple, ensuring she’ll be a short-priced favourite here, and she’ll make it three on the bounce.
Value: Race 7, Number 1, Icicle
Moreton Bay looks like the leader and likely winner, but at big odds, I am happy to speck this guy 1×3. This horse had a good, tough win sitting outside the speed two back at Hamilton before being poorly away from the stand at Geelong but landed in a good spot. Unfortunately, the damage was done. If he can land leaders back, he’ll only run well.