Welcome, Bruno Boys Nation to Wild Card Weekend! The regular season may be over and even though season-long fantasy football is done, that doesn’t mean you can’t get in on the action that’s happening for the playoffs. Marc Caviglia and Ernie Estrella are tackling Player Prop betting during the playoffs and are going to break down each game for you along with our picks at the end.
Arizona Cardinals (11-6) at Los Angeles Rams (12-5)
Spread: Rams -3.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
Total: O/U 47.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
Start Time: Monday, January 17, 8:15pm ET (ABC/ESPN)
The NFC West division foes will meet for the third time this season. However this time, it’s win or go home for the Arizona Cardinals (11-6) and the Los Angeles Rams (12-5). The Rams and Cardinals split the season series, with the Cardinals blowing out the Rams 37-20 on the road in October, but the Rams winning the most recent meeting in Arizona 30-23.
On paper, these two offenses are about as evenly matched as you can get. The Rams average 27.1 points per game, while the Cardinals average 26.4 points per game. They both rank in the top-10 in total yards per game and rely on their quarterbacks to make big plays for the success of their teams.
As equal as these two teams are offensively, they are just as comparable defensively. The Cardinals allow 21.5 points per game, while the Rams allow 21.9 points per game. The Cardinals due give up slightly less total yards per game (15 less to be exact), however the Rams have the better front four and do a better job of applying pressure on the quarterback.
As you can tell it’s going to be a true dogfight that can go either way tonight. If I had to pick a side, my gut tells me that the Rams are the more complete, and experienced team, and they find a way to win tonight, and head to Tampa to take on the Buccaneers next weekend.
From a sports betting angle, my top play in this game is a NFL player prop bet. Arizona wide receiver A.J. Green has played in his fair share of playoff games, he’s battle tested and should see enough opportunity in this game to his his favorable prop predictions. Green finished with 54 receptions on the season, and averaged 15.7 yards per catch. Based on those stats alone, the veteran would need just 3 receptions to hit is OVER 44.5 receiving yard player prop. In his two games against Los Angeles this season, Green finished with 12 receptions (16 targets), 169 receiving yards and a touchdown. While his yard per catch average didn’t hit his season average, the volume alone gives us enough betting edge to lock in Green over 44.5 receiving yards.
Pick: A.J. Green OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Risk: 2.2 Units (1 unit = $100)
To Win: 2 Units
Here are a couple of other Player Prop bets (all to win 1 unit) worth considering in this game:
- A.J Green OVER 3.5 receptions (-115 at DraftKings)
- Matthew Stafford OVER 0.5 interceptions (-127 at Unibet)
- Christian Kirk OVER 52.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
- Sony Michal OVER 14.5 rushing attempts (-135 at DraftKings)
- Cooper Kupp OVER 7.5 receptions (-143 at MGM)
- Cooper Kupp OVER 103.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
- Cooper Kupp ANYTIME touchdown scorer (-143 at FoxBet)
- James Conner ANYTIME touchdown scorer (+140 at FanDuel — .5 unit play)