Had Edwin Diaz struggled at all during his first two spring training appearances, calls would’ve likely started anew from a segment of the Mets fan base who refuse to be confident in him despite a 2020 that was so dominant that he made history.
But Diaz has been perfect in his two spring appearances, retiring all six batters he’s faced with ease as his fastball has reached the high-90s and his slider has looked terrific.
Still, there are those who seemingly refuse to rely on their own eyes when it comes to Diaz.
A sampling of those replying to recent tweets about Diaz’s dominance:
Here’s the thing…
It’s fine to have some residual PTSD when it comes to Diaz’s fluky 2019 that was due in part to changes to the baseball and his inability to harness his slider, which impacted other pitchers as well.
You can be a bit wary of any closer while understanding that closer is elite and has some of the nastiest stuff in the sport.
But at some point (and that point is now) you’re simply lying to yourself if you’re still saying with a straight face that Edwin Diaz isn’t a dominant reliever and that he isn’t clearly the Mets’ best option to close games.
To those who say Diaz hasn’t done it over a full season? That’s very wrong.
Diaz was one of the best and most dominant relievers in the sport in both 2016 (when he came in fifth in AL Rookie of the Year voting) and 2017.
In 2018, Diaz was the best reliever in the sport, with a 1.96 ERA (1.61 FIP) and 0.79 WHIP while striking out 15.2 batters per 9 and notching a league-leading 57 saves for the Seattle Mariners.
Then came 2019, when Diaz struggled badly, but when his advanced numbers showed flukiness (including an absurdly high home run/fly ball rate) and that his stuff was still elite (he struck out a career-best 15.4 batters per 9).
But 2019 was tough for Diaz, and any Mets fan who has scars from watching Armando Benitez walk Paul O’Neill while blowing Game 1 of the 2000 World Series and watching Jeurys Familia serve up a game-tying home run in Game 1 of the 2015 World Series was right to be alarmed at what happened to Diaz in Year 1 in Queens.
But as is noted above and as I outlined here before last season, all signs pointed toward a huge bounce back for Diaz in 2020. And it happened.
In 25.2 innings over 19 games last season, Diaz had a 1.75 ERA (2.18 FIP) and 1.24 WHIP (his walk rate was a bit high) while striking out 50 batters — an absolutely ridiculous rate of 17.5 batters per 9.
If you look at Diaz’s advanced stats from 2020, you’ll see that he was among the best in the game when it came to xERA, whiff rate, exit velocity against, xBA, and xSLG.
The takeaway there? Diaz was dominant and it was not a fluke.
Diaz should also not be dinged because last season was a small sample. For one, there is no reason to think his dominance wouldn’t have continued had the season been longer. And two, he had three dominant seasons under his belt before 2020 happened. It’s clear that 2019 was the aberration and that dominance is the norm.
For those who point to Diaz’s “struggles” in 2020 when it came to closing games, it should be noted that blown saves are a flawed stat that should soon be as looked down upon as pitcher wins are.
And it should be further noted that of Diaz’s four blown saves, one of them came on a pitch he executed and simply got beat on (by Marcell Ozuna), another was charged to him after he came into a jam and allowed the first runner he faced to reach base before striking out the next four batters as the Mets won, and another was charged to him after he entered a jam of Justin Wilson‘s making. His other blown save was the disaster at Yankee Stadium.
If we’re going to nitpick Diaz’s bad moments, it’s only fair to give full context.
There are also some Mets fans who refuse to forgive Diaz for his sin of being involved in the trade that sent Jarred Kelenic to Seattle.
To the above I can only say that while including Kelenic in that deal was malpractice (and that was a first-guess by this writer), it is not something that should be used to knock Diaz. He is a dominant reliever in his prime. Who was traded in the deal to acquire him doesn’t change that.
With Edwin Diaz, the Mets have a lights-out reliever whose stuff matches his numbers and who is well-equipped to do big things this season for a team with dreams of a World Series title.
It’s time for the part of the fan base still wary of Diaz to realize what they have and enjoy the ride.