SANTA CLARA, Calif. — For the better part of the past four months, San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan have taken every opportunity to reaffirm their belief Jimmy Garoppolo will be the team’s starting quarterback in 2021.
While the speculation about the Niners’ quarterback plans have not ceased, nothing has changed. The only way they’ll move on from Garoppolo is if they’re certain they have an upgrade in place. To that end, there’s one possibility that continues to linger over the NFL’s offseason proceedings. His name is Deshaun Watson.
Watson has told the Houston Texans he has no intention of playing for them again. The Texans have said repeatedly they have no interest in trading Watson. An intense game of chicken appears to be underway.
Meanwhile, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported last month the 49ers are a team that “intrigues” Watson. That’s significant if only because Watson has a full no-trade clause and can dictate his destination if and when the Texans trade him.
Make no mistake, the Watson situation is one the 49ers are monitoring closely even though there’s no guarantee that he’s going to be traded, a deal that ESPN’s Mike Tannenbaum believes would begin with “at least” three first-round picks.
The 49ers, with the No. 12 overall pick, would likely need to include a young star such as end Nick Bosa or linebacker Fred Warner as part of a deal. The argument could be made the Niners should hold on to their top players, keep Garoppolo and use their draft capital to continue building out the roster. Bosa, in particular, seems like an unlikely trade chip given his youth, relative inexpensive price tag and the value the Niners place on pass-rushers. Sacrificing too many resources would also make the Niners less attractive to a player such as Watson.
But Tannenbaum believes Watson would give the Niners the type of franchise centerpiece who could offset just about any player they might trade.
“Nick Bosa is one of the three or four best non-quarterbacks in the league but it would have to take someone like Deshaun Watson for me to even consider trading him,” Tannenbaum said. “But to get somebody like Deshaun Watson, he changes your franchise for the next 10 years. You’re getting Steph Curry. You’re getting a great player and you’re getting a great leader and a great person. Would you trade Nick Bosa to get Steph Curry?”
While the Texans seem intent on keeping their quarterback, Watson seems to be digging in, which leaves teams interested in his services — and there will be many — waiting on the periphery and formulating a plan if something changes.
According to Tannenbaum, who was general manager of the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins executive vice president of football operations, the NFL draft is the logical time for the Texans to decide whether their relationship with Watson can be salvaged.
“It’s unbelievable to me that six or eight months ago he signed an extension and you’re going to pay him $39 million,” Tannenbaum, ESPN’s NFL front office insider, said. “You have to make it work. You can’t not make it work.”
From the 49ers’ perspective, any potential deal for Watson figures to be difficult to pull off, especially if it comes before the NFL draft. The Niners have the 12th pick, which puts them behind the likes of the New York Jets (No. 2), Miami Dolphins (No. 3), Carolina Panthers (No. 8) and Denver Broncos (No. 9) among teams that could have interest in Watson. That’s notable given the likelihood any trade the Texans make involving Watson would probably need to position them to draft his replacement.
What’s more, the Dolphins and Jets have multiple first-round picks this year, which gives them more ammunition to make a deal if that’s a route they choose to take. All of which means if the Niners want to be real players in a potential pursuit of Watson, they’d probably have to grit their teeth and make a difficult decision to trade a star player along with picks.
June Jones, who coached Garoppolo in the 2014 East-West Shrine Game and is a believer in his talent, believes Watson would bring a skill set to the Bay Area that would allow Shanahan to evolve his offense.
“He’d do great things,” Jones, the former Atlanta Falcons coach and current CoachTube.com instructor, said. “I think Kyle Shanahan has kind of cut back on the offense because he’s not that confident in Garoppolo. That’s not the same offense he ran with [Matt] Ryan when they went to the Super Bowl, for example. They were in three, four, five wides and they were throwing the football. That was what they were doing. He has kind of evolved to his personnel.
“Deshaun could do practically anything. I know that whoever gets Deshaun Watson is going to open it up and find out that that’s how he is going to be at his maximum.”
Since Shanahan’s arrival in 2017, Niners quarterbacks rank 29th in the NFL in rushing yards and last in passes traveling 20-plus air yards. Watson ranks fourth among quarterbacks in rushing yards and 11th in 20-plus-air-yard pass attempts, while his 45.4% completion rate on those throws ranks second in that same time.
One benefit the Niners might get if the Watson saga continues to drag out beyond the draft? Such a scenario would erase any draft pick advantage teams ahead of the 49ers might have. And, since San Francisco remains comfortable with Garoppolo as its starter for 2021, it doesn’t have to act out of desperation. The 49ers can wait it out without having to scramble for another option.
A deal for Watson still seems like a long shot barring him specifically requesting a trade to the Niners. Which means Garoppolo with new backups remains the most likely path for the Niners in 2021. But crazy things happen in the NFL and with the cap dropping and the quarterback carousel already spinning, nothing should be ruled out.
“Once you have this quarterback, it just changes everything,” Tannenbaum said. “Regardless of what the price is, you’ll look back and laugh. First-round picks, depending on where you pick, aren’t always a certainty. Deshaun Watson is a certainty.”