Team-By-Team Look At MLB Fan Attendance For Opening Day 2021

We know Major League Baseball will play a full 162-game regular season. But will fans be allowed to attend games during the pandemic? As vaccinations increase, and COVID case numbers have precariously lowered, a look at all 30 clubs in Major League Baseball shows the vast majority will see some level of fan attendance on opening day in 2021.

One of the burning questions out of last year has been the economic impact of MLB hosting just 60 games with no fans in attendance? While there are other considerations — namely, approx. 102 games on regional sports networks and more still on national broadcasts – a considerable piece of the league’s economic puzzle deals with fans through the gate as ticket, concession, merchandise, and parking revenue.

While multiple requests have been made to the Commissioner’s Office and the MLB Players Association to confirm financial information around the 2020 season, Commissioner Manfred said that the league saw operating losses of “$2.7 billion to $3 billion” and that those losses were cash losses. The league did not tap its central fund for loans, but Manfred said that many clubs, on their own, took on additional debt. Before the pandemic, gross revenues for 2019 were $10.7 billion. While numbers have not been reported, industry sources have indicated that the league has had operating income on the plus side in recent years. While not all clubs run under the same conditions, the Atlanta Braves — the only club that sees some form of financial information revealed – saw an operating loss before interest, taxes, and amortization (EBITA) of $49 million for 2020 while posting a $54 million profit in 2019. In other words, the Braves, while seeing losses in 2020, overall saw $5 million in profit over the last two years.

According to the Forbes 2020 MLB franchise valuations, gate receipts totaled $3.2 billion, while other stadium revenues accounted for $952 million. The two together account for the #2 revenue stream behind local and national media rights.

So, as the league heads into the upcoming season, as of publication 25 clubs will see fan attendance in one form or another ranging from a low of 3% of capacity (Detroit Tigers) to as high as 35% (Milwaukee Brewers). Some clubs have been conditional green lights to allow fans to attend but final capped attendance criteria have not yet been reached. For example, California Governor Gavin Newsom has said that outdoor sporting events will be allowed to have fans, but the final figures will be forthcoming. That affects the Dodgers, Angels, Padres, A’s, and Giants, all of which are looking at 20% of capacity as the floor they hope to attain.

And while some clubs know that they will have fans on opening day and have target attendance, others are planning but have not yet set a threshold they hope to achieve. As an example, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot will allow the Cubs and White Sox to host games, but details have not yet been forthcoming. Both the Cubs and White Sox have submitted plans to the mayor for 30% capacity, but it’s unclear whether those plans will be adopted.  

The only clubs that do not yet know whether they will have fans on opening day are the Blue Jays, Mariners, Nationals, Orioles, and Twins.

While questions remain about what opening day attendance will ultimately render, the one irrefutable aspect is there will be a considerable economic disparity between the clubs. As an example, should Gov. Newsom allow for 20% attendance in California, the Dodgers could see a capacity of 11,200 while the New York Yankees will only be allowed 5,500. The Toronto Blue Jays, who will be playing their entire 2021 home game schedule at their Spring Training facility at TD Ballpark in Dunedin, Florida only sees a total capacity of 8,500. Under current restrictions, the club is allowing 12% of capacity to attend during Spring Training. Should that be allowed for regular season play, the Blue Jays would only see just over 1,000 fans per game.

Below shows the state of fan attendance restrictions for each of the 30 clubs in Major League Baseball based on press releases, reports in the media, and contact will clubs directly. The percentage of fans allowed at the ballpark will almost assuredly change as the season progresses.