If new Broncos general manager George Paton isn’t way better at this draft thing than John Elway, why is he here?
And how could Paton possibly be worse? Denver has fallen off the NFL map because Elway’s paint-by-numbers approach to the draft painted the Broncos into a corner.
So with the ninth overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft, what will Paton do with his first big chance to reverse the fortunes of a downwarding spiraling franchise?
If you believe the draftniks, who often make a mockery of projecting first-round picks by cheating off each other’s paper in an annual excercise of group think, the Broncos must take a cornerback, because it’s a position of obvious need. In nearly every mock draft you read, Denver will select either Caleb Farley of Virginia Tech or Patrick Surtain II of Alabama, because the Broncos lack a shutdown corner.
But drafting strictly for need in the first round would be the worst mistake Paton could make.
With a top-10 pick, there should be only one criteria for a football team that has failed to qualify for the playoffs in five straight seasons. Paton must look for a player capable of making the Pro Bowl a perennial basis, regardless of position. The Broncos are a last-place team because outside of Von Miller, there isn’t anybody on the current roster on the path to the Hall of Fame.
While draftniks can debate the merits of Farley vs. Surtain for the Broncos until the room is filled with so much hot air you want to climb out the nearest window, here’s the real nitty gritty: There are legit questions about whether either Farley or Surtain can step in and be a CB1 at the NFL level, much less develop into Hall of Fame talent.
While the athleticism of Farley is definitely intriguing, his history of spotty health also poses a legit concern, especially after he opted out of the 2020 college season, perhaps using the pandemic to shield him from the possibility of another injury. And Surtain? He’s the son of an NFL player and a solid technician. But watch video of the Crimson Tide’s victory over Ohio State in the national championship game and it’s hard to make the case for Surtain as a true shutdown corner.
I’m no draftnik, but my hard-and-fast rule is to always seek the biggest impact player available in the first round. That philosophy made me firmly believe Justin Jefferson would make more noise in the red zone as a rookie receiver than Jerry Jeudy did by griping about not getting the football a year ago, just as I pounded the table for the Broncos to draft Quenton Nelson in 2018, because Hall of Fame offensive linemen aren’t easy to find.
Yes, the draft is a roll of the dice. My outside-the-box take is there are better gambles for the Broncos at No. 9 than either Farley or Surtain.
If Denver is stuck with Drew Lock as its starting quarterback in the season-opener, then offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur will be hard-pressed to find a way to outscore Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs unless somebody else can become the focus of this offense.
Alabama running back Najee Harris, however, could change the math for Denver. At 6-foot-2 and 230 pounds, he could punish the oh-so-soft K.C. defense. It was Harris who led the Tide’s stampede through Florida, Notre Dame and Ohio State to the national championship, rushing for 382 yards in three games. By carrying the load and catching the ball, he would make Lock shine.
And did you see how Tampa Bay rattled Mahomes in the Super Bowl with relentless athletic pursuit on defense? The Swiss Army knife Paton could give Fangio to carve up the Chiefs is Notre Dame linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. He has closing speed that kills drives. The Irish lined him up in the box, the slot, the D-line and even the secondary. Owusu-Koramoah is on the cutting edge of a new NFL trend of athletes who are as unconventional and nearly unstoppable as Mahomes can be at quarterback.
Need I repeat the sad story of why the Broncos find themselves in such a sad current state of affairs? While the diamonds in his Super Bowl rings will shine forever, Elway consistently stunk at draft and develop.
He had a nasty habit of selecting quarterbacks because they were tall (duh). A year ago, when coach Vic Fangio craved a linebacker to give his defensive scheme some punch, Elway gave him a wide receiver in both the first and second rounds.
While Bradley Chubb is often lauded as a pick Elway got right, it was a selection the Broncos made without properly doing their homework, when the team could’ve instead transformed their ailing offensive line by taking Nelson, or rolled the dice on quarterback Josh Allen, who played up the road from the team’s Dove Valley headquarters at Wyoming.
Everyone in Broncos Country, myself included, seems obsessed with who will play quarterback in 2021. We hope against all reason a trade with Houston for Deshaun Watson could be even remotely possible.
But it is how well Paton drafts that will determine whether Denver can return to championship relevancy anytime soon. He must dare to think big and outside the box.