The only NFL mock draft you need in your life

Some mock drafts tell you what will happen, others tell you what should happen. This is the only mock draft that tells you what could happen. That’s how I began last year’s Mock Draft for The People, and it’s how I’ll begin this year’s as well, because you didn’t even read this introduction…

USA Today Sports (4)

1. Jacksonville: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

He’s the best quarterback prospect in a decade and it isn’t particularly close. He’ll fit in any system you want to run: Air Raid, Shanahan-ian play-action, Wishbone, the playbook the Little Giants used—really, anything Rick Moranis can draw up. If you want to run it, it will work with Lawrence.

There are a lot of things that can happen between now and Thursday, but a potential chain of the events that causes Lawrence to fall from the top spot is limited to this specific scenario:

2. N.Y. Jets: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

He’s not my choice as the draft’s second quarterback, but I understand why it makes sense for the Jets: 1) Mike LaFleur is bringing a Shanahanian offense to East Rutherford, and Wilson will often be working from the kind of spacious throwing platforms he enjoyed at BYU (which, along with his off-platform throwing, makes for an expansive offense). And 2) The Jets are still sitting on a warehouse full of Mark Sanchez-style headbands, so it’s about time they brought in someone who could put them to good use.

3. San Francisco (from Houston via Miami): Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

My favorite thing about the draft punditry class, of which I someday hope to be a part, is the inside jokes. For instance, this year, everyone’s pretending that Trey Lance isn’t the second-best quarterback in this class.

Kyle Shanahan has watched football in the past five years, with multiple eyes that each have rods and cones and retinas that transmits images to his brain via optic nerves, and therefore understands how important movement skills, and the ability to create time and space, are for a quarterback in 2021. North Dakota State might be an FCS school, but they put a lot on Lance’s plate and he showed the ability to execute plenty of NFL concepts. He fits this offense, and he has the kind of talent you trade into the top three to get.

4. *PROJECTED TRADE UP* New England: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
*Trade Up from 15: New England sends Atlanta their second-round pick (46th overall), first of three fourth-round picks (120th), and a 2022 first-round pick and ’22 third-round pick

I know, the Patriots never trade up! And look at how well that’s worked out for them the past four drafts!

The 2022 QB draft class is at least shaping up to be a potential dud, Fields would have been the heavy favorite to go first overall in ’22 had he returned to Columbus, who knows when the Patriots will be within striking distance of the top-five again, and Bill Belichick probably doesn’t want to be perusing the dollar-store for replacement-level quarterbacks when he’s 70 (who among us would?). They just built the roster in free agency; this is the point where they go get their quarterback.

5. Cincinnati: JaMarr Chase, WR, LSU

This could be Kyle Pitts or one of the tackles. But a year ago the Bengals had to charm Joe Burrow just to get him to join the team and they surely see what’s gone on with disgruntled franchise quarterbacks across the league. Burrow wants his guy; who are they to say no?

Anyway, this is Burrow (voiced by Bob Saget) flying in from Baton Rouge with his new receiver:

6. Miami (from Philadelphia): Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

The Dolphins now have DeVante Parker, Will Fuller, Preston Williams and Mike Gesicki, and if that isn’t enough weaponry for your quarterback, maybe the weaponry isn’t the problem. So if the Dolphins are going to build around Tua, offensive line is where they upgrade now. Sewell steps in at right tackle, kicking Robert Hunt inside to guard (as God intended), and now we have a front five in Miami.

7. *PROJECTED TRADE UP* L.A. Chargers: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
*Trade Up from 13: L.A. Chargers send Detroit their third (77th overall) and fourth (118th) round picks.

Maybe it isn’t the best idea to trade up for a tight end when your offensive line is in shambles. But on the other hand: C’monnnnnn. Look at this guy! The Chargers have a one-year stopgap at tight end with Jared Cook; Pitts can grow up with Justin Herbert. They’ll have to leap over Carolina to get him though.

8. Carolina: Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

For left tackle options, the Panthers have Greg Little and signed Cameron Erving to a suspiciously significant contract. After going all-defense in last year’s draft, and building up a pretty good receiving corps even without Curtis Samuel, it’s time to do something about a left tackle spot that’s been a problem since Jordan Gross retired.

9. Denver: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

If Trey Lance gets past the 49ers, the Broncos should go get him no matter what kind of destruction they have to carve out along the way. But if not, they have to address a cornerbacking group that was just a mess last season. Surtain is a Day One starter on the boundary.

10. Dallas: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

They’ll be bummed to miss out on Surtain, but Horn brings immense upside—a true man coverage corner with better ball skills than his two career INTs at South Carolina would suggest. And ball skills in the defensive backfield will earn a special place in Mike McCarthy’s heart after the Cowboys were one of 10 teams with 10 or fewer interceptions last season. Which, according to Mike McCarthy’s analytics calculator, is less than 11.

11. N.Y. Giants: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

Parsons not only provides a perfect complement to the steady but less dynamic Blake Martinez on the second level, but if they wanted to use him on the edge he’d immediately be their best player at that spot.

And, as you read this, someone (his name is Ira) somewhere (he’s in Passaic) is furiously banging out an email to me pointing out that the Giants haven’t taken a first-round linebacker since Carl Banks in 1984. So I guess Joe Judge and Patrick Graham will have to beg Ray Handley for permission to make this pick, or something.

12. Philadelphia (from San Francisco via Miami): Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

The Eagles don’t have to throw in the towel on Jalen Reagor by any means, but they also can’t bank on him becoming a No. 1 receiver. So, in their never-ending search for a No. 1 receiver, they turn to the best one left on the board.

13. *PROJECTED TRADE DOWN* Detroit: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
*Trade Down from 7: Detroit receives L.A. Chargers’ third (77th overall) and fourth (118th) round picks.

The only reason the two Alabama receivers are getting out of the top 10 is because the position is already so obscenely deep—across the league and in this draft class—with yet another bumper crop expected in 2022. Smith’s ability to escape off the line of scrimmage and create with the ball in his hands meshes nicely with Jared Goff’s skillset.

14. Minnesota: Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia

The problem with the Vikings bringing in Yannick Ngakoue last offseason wasn’t that he isn’t good (he’s very good). But Danielle Hunter is underpaid, and if they paid a pending free-agent like Ngakoue, Hunter’s new contract would have to top it. They’ll have to give Hunter a new deal regardless, but addressing the other defensive end spot via draft guarantees that second DE will be making less than Hunter, therefore avoiding the awkwardness of bringing in a high-paid vet.

An edge-bending force, Ojulari is the best edge player in this class, and all draft season I’ve been shouting that from the rooftops. It’s been a huge issue with the neighborhood association.

15. *PROJECTED TRADE DOWN* Atlanta: Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan
*Trade Down from 4: Atlanta receives New England’s second-round pick (46th overall), first of three fourth-round picks (120th), and a 2022 first-round pick.

They could stay at 4 and take Kyle Pitts, but does it feel like the Falcons are a tight end away from turning things around? And if they love the fourth quarterback they should stay there, but considering Arthur Smith just made Ryan Tannehill into a superhero in Nashville, you can probably feel good about rummaging through the discount rack to find an heir apparent to Matt Ryan.

So Atlanta’s best move is to trade down and start rebuilding the roster, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I think Paye is best used moving around on the defensive line, and Dean Pees should have some fun with that.

16. Arizona: Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

If the Cardinals are going to continue to run this Kingsbury Air Raid with four receivers running iso routes (and I presume they will since Kliff Kingsbury is still their coach), they’re going to need more than DeAndre Hopkins, the artist formerly known as A.J. Green and a bunch of dudes (Christian Kirk is OK, but also leaning a little too much toward “just a dude” status). Toney blows people away at the short and intermediate levels, and could feast immediately with all the attention Hopkins draws.

17. Las Vegas: Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

This is nice for Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock, who don’t want to go into the season with Brandon Parker at right tackle. Outside of Penei Sewell and Rashawn Slater—the Big Two, as they’re known by nobody anywhere—Darrisaw is the best of the rest in a pretty good tackle class.

18. *PROJECTED TRADE UP* Pittsburgh: Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
*Trade Up from 24: Pittsburgh sends Miami its third rounder (87th overall)

Sensing a run on offensive tackles, the Steelers do the sensible thing and panic, finding a willing trade-down partner in Miami. Pittsburgh can’t run the quick-strike-all-the-time offense they did a year ago, and both tackle spots are trouble spots on this roster (even if they do bring back Ali Villanueva). Jenkins’s mauler mentality fits nicely with the Steelers way, and he keeps the Oklahoma State-to-Pittsburgh pipeline alive (James Washington, Mason Rudolph… also James Washington… seemed like there were others before I looked it up, but no deleting stuff now).

19. Washington: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

The Football Team wins Round 1 by landing Owusu-Koamoah, a prototype for the modern linebacker. Washington’s obscene defensive line will allow him to roam free on early downs, and JOK is essentially an extra defensive back in passing situations.