NASCAR playoff field coming into focus with four races left

There has been only two new winners in the past six races (and three new winners in the past nine), so even with the road course of Watkins Glen and the unpredictable drafting race in the regular-season finale at Daytona, there probably will be only one or two new winners at most in the next four races.

“As of right now, we’re in,” Truex said. “So there’s no reason to be nervous. We need to do our jobs, try to win. And if we can’t win, stack up all the points we can.”

But what if there are three new winners? That would create a scenario for the first time (this format was implemented in 2014) where a driver with a win would not make the playoffs.

Those with two or more wins — Elliott, Chastain, Joey Logano, William Byron, Tyler Reddick and Denny Hamlin — are locked into the playoffs.

Kurt Busch, who will miss his third consecutive race this weekend due to a concussion, is currently the lowest among the eight drivers with one win and would be in jeopardy if there are more winners than spots.

Among those with one win, three can breathe relatively easily: Kyle Larson (182 points ahead of Kurt Busch), Christopher Bell (+155) and Kyle Busch (+148).

The other five drivers with at least one win still need to watch how things play out, and everyone besides Busch mostly just needs to avoid a disastrous race or two that would put them in jeopardy of falling behind him.

Alex Bowman is currently 56 points ahead of Busch and is followed by Daniel Suárez (+50), Austin Cindric (+45) and Chase Briscoe (+25).

They all will obviously put more distance between themselves and Busch with Kurt missing Michigan this weekend. But if for some reason there are four consecutive new winners to make 18 total winners — unlikely but still possible — it would be a more heated battle to get in on points.

“If I would have won Charlotte or won Bristol, then you’re not even talking about this,” said Briscoe, lamenting over some late-race moves that didn’t work.

“There’s a lot of times where I’ve [lost] a lot of points over the last two or three months. Really, we probably shouldn’t be in this spot, but I’ve kind of put ourselves here.”

Chase Briscoe on being on the playoff bubble

Chase Briscoe blames himself for being on the playoff bubble as the one-win driver with the fewest points this year.

Suárez said his team isn’t talking about whether they will get in the playoffs but on how they’ll approach the playoffs.

“I had a meeting with my team about having the mindset that we’re already in the playoffs, so that we can be in that rhythm once we get into the playoffs with momentum and everything,” he said.

For drivers outside the top-10 in points who don’t have a win, they not only have to worry about getting one win to qualify for the playoffs but then also possibly being on the bubble if there are more winners than spots.

Bubba Wallace, who sits 20th in the overall standings and is 27 points behind teammate Kurt Busch, knows a win might not guarantee him a spot.

“Even if we get one win and still get bumped out of the playoffs, we have a win,” Wallace said.

“We know we can do it. We have a team capable of doing it. … [This scenario] puts the emphasis back on the beginning of the season and how we missed some opportunities.”

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What to watch for

NASCAR wasn’t sure prior to the season whether it would use the 670 horsepower package with a short spoiler or the 510 horsepower package with the big spoiler (the Superspeedway package) at the 2-mile Michigan International Speedway.

After what it saw at Auto Club Speedway in February, how well the Next Gen car raced there at 670hp and the speeds not being so fast that the cars were uncontrollable, NASCAR opted to go with the higher horsepower.

That means it likely won’t be pack racing like Atlanta. But there still will be drafting and potential slingshot passes, which Michigan has had its fair share of over the past several years.

Drivers in the past couple of weeks still seemed a little mystified about what type of racing will occur at MIS. The tires could be an issue, too, as this is a new construction designed for more stability.

So what to watch for? How drivers react and adapt throughout the race depending on how it plays out.

Thinking out loud

Chris Buescher stayed in his car at Indianapolis while there was an electrical fire, another time this year when a driver stayed in the car when everyone watching would think he needed to evacuate.

Why would a driver stay in the car? One of the reasons likely is the rule that once a driver gets out of a car, the driver is out of the race. Buescher knew the car might still be drivable, so he had to inhale all the fire extinguisher chemicals while also in an unsafe situation.

NASCAR must look at this rule. A driver should be allowed to get out during a fire and then get back in if the car is still operational. It just doesn’t make sense for a driver to have an incentive to stay in the car when it is on fire.

Social spotlight

They said it

“I personally think the sport needs more penalties and that NASCAR needs to be handing them out like candy right now to get control of the garage, because we’ve been playing a lot of games for a lot of years. And the games have to stop. The games cost a lot of money.” — Brad Keselowski