Napoli and Milan being engaged in a title tussle means Serie A has a charmingly retro feel to it this season, with Sunday’s clash of these pacesetters in Naples rich in promise.
Inter’s thumping win over Salernitana on Friday means Simone Inzaghi’s side hold a one-point advantage at the summit for now, and it would surely count as a massive bonus for the Nerazzurri if their Scudetto rivals cancelled each other out in the weekend’s headline game.
A draw at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona would leave the top three level on 58 points, with Milan and Napoli having 10 games remaining, and Inter with 11 still to play.
Inter are chasing a second consecutive title, while Milan were last champions in 2010-11 and Napoli’s only two league titles were those fuelled by Maradona himself in the 1986-87 and 1989-90 seasons.
The stakes are high now, teams are wobbling, and a win on Sunday night for Napoli or Milan could be a giant stride towards a championship.
Milan stopped the rot against Napoli, but is it setting in again?
In 1988, Milan scored a famous 3-2 win in Naples, as Ruud Gullit, Marco van Basten and Carlo Ancelotti helped see off Maradona and co. That came on May 1, proving a crucial result as Milan edged out Napoli for the title.
But this rivalry has largely not been kind to Milan in recent times. In their last 14 Serie A meetings with Napoli, Milan have surprisingly won just once, and that came on their last visit to the stadium that was then known as the Stadio San Paolo, on November 22, 2020 – a 3-1 success three days prior to Maradona’s death.
Across that run of 14 games, Napoli have won eight times and the teams have drawn five games. The last two, both played in San Siro, have been won 1-0 by Napoli.
What’s more, Milan have not won twice in a row at Napoli since 1981. That is their target for Sunday’s big game, and just like in 1988, the outcome could provide a telling pointer to the destination of the Scudetto.
#OnThisDay in 1985, Maradona received the Rossonero welcome to San Siro for the first time
37 anni fa, la prima vittoria rossonera contro Diego Armando Maradona #SempreMilan@skrill pic.twitter.com/mjChkZ45oS
— AC Milan (@acmilan) March 3, 2022
Guaranteed goals?
There is little in their respective records this season that points to this being a helter-skelter showdown, but when these two meet in Naples, sparks can fly.
Indeed, Opta point to their having been at least three goals scored in each of the last five Serie A games between Napoli and Milan at the home of the Partenopei in Serie A. In those fixtures, there have been 22 goals in total, so 4.4 on average, and Napoli have enjoyed a 4-2 win (August 2016) and a 3-2 success (August 2018) amid that run.
Napoli have scored in 24 of their league fixtures this term, and Milan have netted in 25. So it seems reasonable to expect plenty of penalty area action.
Napoli ended a sticky patch – league draws with Inter and Cagliari and a Europa League exit to Barcelona – by prevailing 2-1 at Lazio last weekend, and they were the only one of the top three to get a win. They have 18 points from eight games so far in the second half of the season (W5 D3), which is the best record of all teams.
Are Milan experiencing a reality check?
Amid the hubbub that surrounds another Milan title challenge, there’s a theory we might consider: they are over-achieving this season.
Despite scoring four fewer than Milan so far (49 to 53), there is evidence to suggest Napoli have been the more creative force. They lead the shots-on-target count by 146 to 127, have hit the woodwork 17 times to Milan’s 10, and have an expected goals (xG) total of 45.1 to the Rossoneri’s 42.3.
So, although both teams are exceeding their xG, Milan are blowing theirs out of the water with a 10.7 positive differential, which has been topped only by Lazio (16.0) and Verona (13.5) this season. Napoli are just 3.9 ahead of their xG haul, which is calculated based on the quality of chances a team has.
Since the turn of the year, there has been a marked cooling-off in terms of Milan’s free-scoring. They have scored 13 times from 14.1 xG in their eight Serie A games in 2022, with Napoli’s record strikingly similar: 14 goals from an xG of 14.3 over eight games.
Insigne chasing landmark win
Big occasions call for big-game players, and that is why Milan’s Zlatan Ibrahimovic has been battling hard to get fit for the trip south after an injury lay-off. His presence in the squad would be a fillip to the visitors, even if the 40-year-old, who scored twice in that November 2020 win in Naples, might not be particularly match sharp.
It’s about having players who are used to winning, who demand the best from others and set the highest standards themselves, which is why Lorenzo Insigne is likely to be a key figure.
Should Napoli win, captain Insigne will become the first Serie A forward to reach 250 victories in all competitions with a single team since 2010.
There won’t be too many more wins to come, given he is heading to Toronto at the season’s end, but Insigne will be up for this one, and for the tests to come.
He scored and then assisted for Fabian Ruiz’s stoppage-time winner at Lazio last time out, and despite bagging just seven goals from a personal xG of 11.5 in the league this term, Napoli will expect their leader to rise to another monumental occasion, as Napoli bid to emulate those Maradona-led teams of the past.
