It looks like it’s still a two-player race, but has a surprise candidate emerged?
We’ve now reached the halfway point of the College Football season and the Heisman race still appears to be a two-player race, but there is an interesting candidate we’ll get to in a bit. But first, based on performance I think Matt Corral came out as the winner in week seven. While the end of game shenanigans are what people will remember, Corral was once again just absolutely massive. With a banged up receiver corps (which Lane Kiffin made sure to mention in his post game on field interview which I assure you was by design), Corral ran the ball an astonishing THIRTY times for 195 yards to go along with 231 passing yards, two touchdowns and a pick. Ole Miss is must see TV every week and I think they can absorb one more loss without tanking his Heisman hopes. His odds have shrunk a little bit to +175.
Bryce Young’s odds also shrunk to +175 after Alabama’s 49–9 win over Mississippi State. Young bounced back from the Texas A&M loss going 20–28 with 348 yards and four touchdown passes. Young is going to keep putting up numbers, particularly with four straight home games on the horizon for the Crimson Tide and the obvious wealth of talent around him. The games will be more high profile the next couple of games with Tennessee and LSU up next, but Alabama is expected to trounce both of those teams so I’m not sure what Young can do to sway voters. He was spectacular on Saturday, but it was a little bit of out of sight, out of mind with what happened between Tennessee and Ole Miss and what happened with that aforementioned interesting candidate.
After Oklahoma’s come from behind win against Texas I saw a few jokes asking if Caleb Williams could win the Heisman Trophy after barely playing the first six weeks of the season. It seemed laughable, but after Williams’ thorough domination of TCU…maybe not? Williams had 351 yards of offense and five touchdowns against the Horned Frogs. Williams now has two games to put up video game numbers against the two worst teams in the conference (Kansas and Texas Tech) before a tough closing stretch against Baylor, Iowa State and Oklahoma State. The possibilities of the weird back-to-back games with the arch rival Cowboys exists if both teams make the Big 12 Championship Game. The Big 12 isn’t the fireworks factory on offense it used to be. Huge offensive numbers aren’t as common as they used to be and Williams has come in and elevated an Oklahoma offense that is supposed to be dominant. Williams is still between 40 and 50–1 at some books so shop around and see what’s available if you think he has a shot. If you do, it’s worth a flier.
I think that’s it for candidates, at least those who played. CJ Stroud (+700) is right there in the mix, but Ohio State was off this week. I remain unchanged in my stance that Desmond Ridder (+2000) just doesn’t put up the stats to win it, particularly after a 154 total yard, one touchdown performance against UCF. Kenny Pickett (+2000) may be as much of a darkhorse as exists halfway through the season right now and he certainly has his highest profile game of the season against the Clemson defense coming up, but Pitt would have to win out for him to have a real shot and banking on Pitt to keep winning isn’t something I have a great deal of interest in.
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