Top FPL Gameweek 1 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

After a long summer, we are back with the new season of Premier League and with that, we are also back with the first Captaincy Metrics blog for the 2022/23 FPL Season. We will analyze various key statistics and draw up a fair conclusion to give you the best FPL Gameweek 1 captaincy option for the week.

Last year the metrics had a 30/38 returns record and proved to be helpful for a lot of FPL managers. We hope it continues to be helpful for FPL managers this season as well.

Link to all our 2022/23 Pre Season articles including a transfer tracker of all new signings, all team pre-season friendly updates, team previews, fixture analysis, position-wise analysis, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Link to all Our FPL Team Analysis Series for all 20 PL Teams from our team correspondents

FPL GW1 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd

Mo Salah tops the metrics as expected with a whopping 67% of the votes. Salah is always known to haul big in GW1 and this time he plays a promoted team, Fulham in GW1 which makes him the standout option. Harry Kane who scored five goals in the pre-season comes second in the votes with teammate Son coming third with 6% of the votes. The most owned player in FPL ever, Jesus comes fourth in the poll and Man City star striker Haaland is fifth in the captaincy poll for Gameweek 1.

Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 1 Captain picks

We have taken underlying stats from the last 6 games of the previous season here.

Kane had a strong end to the season and the same is reflected here in the player stats. He had 23 shots, five more than Salah and had 8 big chances with an xG of 4.64 which puts him first for underlying numbers for players.

Jesus(Then at Man City) is second thanks to a strong xG of 4.01 and Son is close behind in third place with an xG of 3.84. Salah is only fourth but do take into consideration that Salah and Liverpool focused on the UCL in the closing gameweeks.

We have used the last six games stats here from the previous season as pre-season data is not available for a lot of games, plus the level of opponents/Intensity is not the same. This was how the metrics was done in GW1 of last season too!

Similarly, we have decided to rank Haaland 5th as we don’t have any data, and adding any of his past season data will skew the metric. This was the same process when Ronaldo moved to Man United in GW4 last season.


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Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams

Underlying Numbers of the Candidate's Teams

Man City(Haaland) are run away winners here based on the stats from last six games of the previous season. Man City mostly rank top in this part of the metrics, last year we didn’t have a lot of Man City captaincy options but this time Haaland should make it often to the metrics and we can expect him to dominate this section of the metrics.

Liverpool are second behind Man City, Spurs are third and Arsenal who had a bit of a slump towards the closing stages of last season come last.

Please note, pre-season data is not available for all teams and the quality of opposition isn’t the same. This meant we used last six games stats of the previous season, same as GW1 captaincy metrics of last season.

Further Read: FPL GW 1 Fixtures & Players to Target | Best Matchups

Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW1

Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW1

West Ham defence odds are poor which means Haaland and Man City have a 91% odds of scoring one goal and 43% chance of scoring 2.5+ goals in GW1. Salah is close behind with 88% chance of scoring atleast one goal and 34% of scoring 2.5+ goals. Son and Kane are just behind Salah, whereas Jesus is last as Arsenal face Palace which is a tricky fixture.

Further Read: FPL GW1 Preview: Breaking Down FPL Dilemmas for Gameweek 1

Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 1 Captain Picks

Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 1 Captain Picks

Son tops the anytime returns projections for the first gameweek of the season whereas Salah tops the projected points. Haaland’s playing the full 90 might be a concern and he comes only fourth for points projection. The tricky Palace game means Jesus is last in the projections section of the metrics.

Further Read: 2022/23 Season: Predicted GW1 Lineups of All 20 PL Teams

Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 1 Captaincy metric analysis

There’s a three-way tie in which we see three players coming out joint top interms of the metrics. Salah, Son and Kane all are joint top with a CRF of 10, Haaland comes fourth with a CRF of 11 and Jesus is last with a CRF of 17. Considering most of the teams will have one of Son/Kane and Salah it’s going to be a 50/50 call. Few teams would have Salah and Haaland which makes the choice easy.

Coincidentally the GW38 metrics from last season also was a three-way tie and in the end all three hauled so let’s hope it’s the same scenario this time as well.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of the 2022/23 FPL Season

Link to all our 2022/23 Pre Season articles including transfer tracker of all new signings, all team pre-season friendly updates, team previews, fixture analysis, position-wise analysis, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Link to all our FPL Forwards, FPL Midfielders, FPL Defenders, and FPL Goalkeepers series of blogs including the best 4.0 million defenders, and 4.5 Million midfielders.

Link to all Our FPL Team Analysis Series for all 20 PL Teams from our team correspondents

If you’re new to FPL, here is a link to all our FPLBeginners Guide including FPL Beginner’s Guide- How to play?, Bench boost, Team value, Triple captain, Effective ownership, Price Changes, 2022/23 FPL Chip Strategy, Free Hit, Bonus Points, and more.

All our Best Pre Season Reads:

FPL Defenders:

Best £4.5 Million FPL Defenders for the 2022/23 FPL Season
Best £5 & £5.5 Million FPL Defenders for the 2022/23 FPL Season
Best Premium FPL Defenders (£6.0+) for the 2022/23 FPL Season
Best £4.0 Million FPL Defenders for the 2022/23 FPL Season
Best FPL Defenders at Each Price Point for The 2022/23 Season

FPL Midfielders:

Best Mid-Priced FPL Midfielders (£6.0 -£7.5 Million) | 22/23 Season
Best FPL Midfielders at Each Price Point for The 2022/23 Season
Premium FPL Midfielders Analysis Ahead of 2022/23 FPL Season
Best 8.0 Million FPL Midfielders- Stats, Comparison & Verdict
Best £5 & £5.5 Million FPL Midfielders For The 2022/23 FPL Season
Best £4.5 Million FPL Midfielders For The 2022/23 FPL Season

FPL Goalkeepers:

Best FPL Goalkeepers at each price point for 2022/23 Season
FPL Goalkeepers Analysis & Combinations with pros and cons

FPL Forwards:

Best FPL Forwards to Consider Ahead of the 2022/23 FPL Season
Mid-Priced FPL Forwards (£7.0 – £7.5m) | 2022/23 Season
Best FPL Budget Forwards(6.5 & below) for 2022/23 season

Team Previews:

Best Arsenal FPL Players | Arsenal FPL Preview | 2022/23 Season
Best Man United FPL Players | Preview – 2022/23 season

Best Crystal Palace FPL Players | Crystal Palace FPL Preview
Best Liverpool FPL Players | Liverpool FPL Preview | FPL Flynn
Best West Ham FPL Players | West Ham Preview | 2022/23 Season
Best Brighton FPL Players | Brighton Preview | 22/23 FPL Season
Best Aston Villa FPL Players | Aston Villa Preview | 2022/23 Season
Best Newcastle FPL Players | Newcastle Preview | 2022/23 Season
Best Spurs FPL Players | Spurs Preview | 2022/23 FPL Season
Best Wolves FPL Players | Wolves Preview | 2022/23 FPL Season
Best Chelsea FPL Players | Chelsea Preview | 2022/23 FPL Season
Best Leicester City FPL Players | Leicester City Preview
Man City Defenders Analysis & Ratings for 2022/23 FPL Season
FPL Player in Focus: Erling Haaland | Complete Analysis
Man City Midfielders/Forwards Analysis for 2022/23 FPL Season
Best Southampton FPL Players | Saints FPL Preview | FPL Pricey
Best Leeds FPL Players | Leeds Preview | 2022/23 FPL Season
Best Brentford FPL Players | Brentford Preview | 2022/23 Season
Best Everton FPL Players | Everton FPL Preview | 2022/23 Season
Best Fulham FPL Players | Fulham FPL Preview | 2022/23 Season
Best FPL Assets To Consider From Promoted Teams | 22/23 Season(Forest, Fulham, and Bournemouth covered)

FPL GW1 Content:

FPL GW 1 Fixtures & Players to Target | Best Matchups | FPL Paz
Set-Piece & Penalty Takers of All Premier League Clubs
FPL GW1 Scout Picks | FPLDaggaFC & AllAboutFPL
FPL GW1 Preview: Breaking Down FPL Dilemmas for Gameweek 1
FPL GW1 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of GW 1 Deadline
FPL GW1 Team Reveal and Tips | FPL GOAT

2022/23 Season: Predicted GW1 Lineups of All 20 PL Teams
2022/23 Pre-Season Summary of All 20 Premier League Teams
One FPL Differential Pick From Each Team Ahead of GW1
Best Differential FPL Team for the 2022-2023 Season
Must Own FPL Players For GW1 Of 2022/23 Season

FPL Player in Focus:

FPL Player in Focus: Mason Mount | Perhaps The Best 8M Asset?
FPL Player in Focus: Jack Grealish | Time to Back Grealish in FPL?
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Fixture Analysis

FPL Fixture Swing Analysis & Best Player Rotation for 22/23 FPL Season
All Teams FPL Fixture Analysis for The 2022/23 FPL Season | PL Fixtures
FPL Rotational Pairs & Combinations For The 2022/23 FPL Season

Pre-Season Reads:

A Guide to FPL Team Structure | 2022/23 FPL Season
Rotation Free FPL Assets Based on Previous Season Minutes
FPL Player Analysis- Based on Home and Away Data | Fanalytics
What is BPS in FPL? | Which Players Benefit More from BPS?
Talisman Theory – 2021/22 Report | Who Got The Assist(WGTA)
How I landed up my first ever Top 500 finish | Sankalp’s column | FPL Tips
8 Simple & Effective FPL Tips For A Good FPL Overall Rank | FPL Paz

Other Reads:
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Exploring the Best Liverpool FPL Triple Up for the 2022/23 Season
FPL Draft with Haaland, Salah, Kane, Jesus, TAA, James
2022/23 FPL Chip Strategy: Guide on What to do with FPL Chips
Best FPL Picks Outside Top 6 Teams To Consider For 2022/23 Season
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Initial GW1 Drafts for the 2022/23 FPL Season with Pros & Cons
Three time Top 10k finisher FPL GOAT’s Three Best Drafts for GW1
How Will Five Substitutions Per Game Impact 2022/23 FPL Season?
2022/23 FPL Season Launch | New Rules, Prices, Positions, Chips in FPL
List Of Free To Join Prize FPL Mini Leagues | Mini League | 22/23 Season
FPL Players to Target From The Top Six Till GW16 | 22/23 Player Watchlist

Initial Reaction to FPL Player Price Reveals for the 2022/23 FPL Season
FPL Ultimate Pre-season guide for 2022/23 season: Tips, Previews & more
List of Good FPL Team Names for the 2022/23 FPL Season
2022/23 FPL Pre Season: All Clubs Friendlies Fixtures, Updates & Results
2022/23 Premier League Transfer Updates | FPL Impact of New Signings
2022/23 FPL Season: Key Dates, Information, and Timeline
List of Premier League Players Who’ll Not be Going to the 2022 World Cup

Thanks for reading the ‘FPL Gameweek 1 Captain Picks’ blog. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for regular blogs. Also, follow our 60,000+community on InstagramFacebook, and Twitter to stay updated on regular Posts and FPL updates. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 38 blogs.

What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 1 of the 2022/23 FPL Season?

We’ll be covering team previews for all 20 teams, FPL team structures, must-own players, player comparisons, differential picks, fixture analysis, captaincy metrics, multiple FPL drafts with pros and cons, chip strategy, rules guide, beginners guide, FPL tips, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs and subscribe to our free newsletter through the link below. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook keep our notification ON.

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AK is a big Chelsea fan and has been playing FPL since 2012/13. He has finished in the top 5k three times with a Best Overall Rank of 1,140 in the 17/18 season. He’s 250th in the FFS HoF and is ranked 7th in India in All-time FPL Rank on Premier Fantasy Tools.

He believes in the Eye test and uses statistics to verify them. AK takes a keen interest in Football tactics and strategies on the field.

He can be found here: https://twitter.com/AK_FPL1