Last year, I began a 10-year retrospective study on QB scoring and end-of-season ranking using the top 24 results for each year. This helped provide guidance regarding the perfect time to draft a high-profile QB without spending a top pick in the first 3 rounds. For the 2021 edition, I have added last year’s totals and will also be commenting on the importance of drafting a rushing QB (includes either rushing yards and/or TD’s). As usual, I have broken down the top-24 into the following 3 simple tiers:
• Tier 1 – QB 1-3: These are the top-tier QB’s that will typically get drafted in the first 3-4 rounds of redraft leagues and, most often, produce top QB fantasy numbers
• Tier 2 – QB 4-12: These QB’s are the middle-tier QB’s that produce dependable numbers most weeks
• Tier 3 – QB 13-24: Depending on the year, some of the QB 13-18’s produce respectable fantasy numbers, but the drop-off between useful production and fantasy irrelevance is precipitous and difficult to predict
First, I will look at the difference in weekly point totals within, and then between the tiers. This will help reveal the point differentials when drafting a QB early (Tier 1) vs drafting a QB in the middle rounds.
Second, I will examine how many QB’s were able to repeat as a QB1 and how many of them were able to achieve the status of QB5 or better.
Third, I will compile the results and use 11 years of data to help you decide when it’s best to pull the trigger on your QB for the season.
Fourth, I will comment on the value of finding a “rushing QB” with the potential to compile both rushing yards and rushing TD’s over the course of the season.
QB PRODUCTION VARIATION WITHIN EACH TIER
TIER 1: Here, we need to look at the point difference between the QB1 and the QB3 each year and calculate the 11-year average in points per game:
• QB1 to QB3 point differential: 49.1 points/year (11-year range of 5.3 – 93.88 points from QB1 to QB3)
• QB1 to QB3 points per game differential: 3.06 points/game (11-year range of 0.33 – 5.87 points/game from QB1 to QB3)
TIER 2: The difference between QB4 and 12:
• QB4 to QB12 point differential: 79.34 points/year (39.32 – 99.66 points from QB4 to QB12) • QB4 to QB12 points per game differential: 4.96 points/game (range of 1.9 – 6.23 points/game from QB4 to QB12)
Let’s dive deeper into the differences between the QB5 and QB10 fantasy finishes over the past 11 years: • QB5 to QB10 point differential: 46.81 points/year
• QB5 to QB10 points per game differential: 2.93 points/game
TIER 3: The difference between QB13 and QB24 over 11 years includes a significant degree of variability. When accounting for injuries to starting QB’s or teams benching their starters and tanking for the following year, the inclusion of all 11 years of statistics for QB13 to QB24 did not present any other significant point of interest other than you really need to draft a QB before you reach the QB13-24 ranking! There were years where the QB24 scored 203.7 fantasy points, while there were years the QB20- 24 scored 0 points. Rest assured; a great deal of the fantasy finishes in that range was U-G-L-Y…avoid at all costs for your QB1 selection!!
MAIN TAKEAWAYS FROM THE DATA
• The point differential from the QB1 to the QB5 over 11 years is ~72.68 points/year (4.54 points/game). Current Fantasy Pros ADP rankings have the QB1 at ADP25 and the QB5 at ADP57. That’s a solid 3 round separation for an average of <5points/game. Fantasy players need to consider the value of positional players in rounds 1-4 and the points that they will accrue from the RB’s and WR’s they pass on to draft a QB1 – QB4.
• The average fantasy point total for a QB1-QB3 over 11 years is 343.55 points. Comparatively, the average fantasy point total for a QB4-QB12 over the same 11 years is 270.72 points. By drafting a QB in the 4-12 range, you are giving up ~72.83 points/year (4.55 points/game). Again, drafting a QB in the 4-12 range only limits your daily point total by <5 points/game and you risk giving up positional depth at RB and WR where those measly 5 points are easily made up.
• The point differential from the QB5 to the QB12 over 11 years is ~66.7 points/year (4.17 points/game). Current Fantasy Pros ADP rankings have the QB5 at ADP 57 and the QB12 at ADP100. That is anywhere from a 4 to 5 round difference in QB draft selection for a pitiful 4.17 points/game! Think of the players that you can draft in the 3 to 4 rounds before your QB selection to secure your positional depth – RB’s, WR’s and TE’s to fill out your team before you select a QB for a puny 4.17 points each contest.
UPPER TIER QB CONSISTENCY
This will be a simple analysis of NFL QB’s that, in the past 11 years, have repeated as the QB1 or finished the year as a top 5 QB:
What QB’s have repeated as the QB1 in back-to-back years?
• Aaron Rodgers: 2010-11
• Drew Brees: 2012-13
What QB’s have the most QB1 finishes since 2010?
• Aaron Rodgers: 4
• Drew Brees: 2
• Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton: 1
What QB’s have the most top 5 finishes since 2010?
• Aaron Rodgers: 8
• Drew Brees: 7
• Tom Brady: 5
• Matt Ryan: 4
• Russel Wilson: 4
In the past 3 years, what QB’s have repeated as top 5 QB’s?
• Deshaun Watson: 2
• Russell Wilson: 2
• Aaron Rodgers: 2
The very short but IMPORTANT message here: the top 5 QB’s listed by ADP won’t necessarily be the QB’s that finish in the top 5! There are countless examples of QB’s drafted outside of the top 10 every single year that finish the fantasy season in the top 5, and even as the QB1 (see 2020’s version of Aaron Rodgers as our most recent example). Drafting Patrick Mahomes is the closest thing to a top-5 guarantee, but that will come with a draft cost of ~ADP25 with current estimates. However, Rodgers has an ADP of ~70 (beginning of round 7) – think of the positional value that you can accrue in rounds 3, 4, 5, and 6! And you can still draft the likes of Justin Herbert (ADP74), Tom Brady (ADP87) and Jalen Hurt (ADP92) after Rodgers is off the board.
FINAL THOUGHTS ON DRAFTING QB’S IN 2021
After all of the data presentation, number-crunching and analysis, most fantasy owners really prefer to know the bottom line. Here is my advice on drafting a QB in the 2021 season:
1. Do not draft a QB until the 4th QB comes off the board: In any draft, you should be watching for trends or “runs” on player positions. If QB’s start flying off of the board and you are keen to have a higher-ranked tier 2 QB, then just take the 5th one off the board. You are only sacrificing 4.54 points/per game on average by waiting for the QB5 instead of the QB1 – certainly players like Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes buck that trend, but the draft cost of taking a QB in the 1st or 2nd round absolutely limits your depth at high-value players that you require in multiple slots.
2. Aim to grab a QB in the 5-10 range: As indicated above, the QB5 to QB10 point differential is ~46.81 points/year (2.93 points/game). Again, by keeping a close eye on the QB run in your draft, you will be able to nab a very productive player at the QB10 range while only sacrificing <3 points/game. These points are measly compared to the points you will make up by drafting higher upside RB’s and WR’s at multiple slots, not to mention the bench depth you will accrue at those positions.
3. #1 QB’s rarely repeated: Peyton Manning came off of a 50TD season ranked as the #1 QB but couldn’t repeat. Patrick Mahomes fought injuries in 2019 after an enormous 2018 campaign. Lamar Jackson broke records 2 years ago finishing as the QB1, but history tells us that QB’s very rarely repeat as the QB1 the following year. Remember the draft capital that you would have to spend in the early rounds to land Mahomes or Jackson while understanding how difficult it is for these players to reproduce their league-leading performances.
4. Don’t be afraid to draft potential at your QB#2 position: While taking a QB in the 5-10 range is a great strategy and one that is very unlikely to let you down (short of injury of course), shooting for the stars with a young QB late in your draft can provide incredible upside for week-winning
finishes. In 2019, Daniel Jones went undrafted but finished as the QB6 late in the season. Lamar Jackson was drafted around the 10th round (or later) in 2019 and finished as the QB1. Look for players late in 2021 like Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts, or Joe Burrow with your last pick and watches them develop over the year. They may just turn into a top-12 QB and bring enormous value based upon their draft position.
And as a final bonus, let’s take a peek at the benefit of a running QB!
BONUS ANALYSIS – THE RUSHING QB
General Fantasy Football Leagues have yet to catch up with the more advanced, detailed leagues out there, most notably the leagues that do not allow QB’s to score the same points for rushing yards as your typical RB (ex. 1 point per rushing yard). Until those scoring systems arise in most leagues, we are left with decent “real-life QB’s” that perform far better as fantasy QB’s largely because of rushing upside. We have to be mindful of not drafting “the best QB out there” and instead focus on drafting “the QB that can score me the most fantasy points based on my league’s scoring system”.
Here is a quick analysis of the past 5 years of data for the top 10 scoring QB’s in fantasy:
| YEAR | # OF QB >400 YDS RUSHING | # QB > 5 RUSHING TD’S | #QB > 4 RUSHING TD’S |
| 2020 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 2019 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 2018 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2017 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 2016 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
From 2016 through 2020, the number of top-10 fantasy QB’s who have a combination of >400 yards rushing and/or >4-5 rushing TD’s has increased. No QB’s rushed for over 400 yards in 2016 but 5 did in 2020. Only 1 QB scored >5 TD’s from 2016-2018 but 5 did in 2020. Over those 5 years, the QB’s who consistently ran for high yardage totals or scored TD’s included the following:
• Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, Cam Newton, Tyrod Taylor
Add to this list a great crop of rookies such as Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, and Trevor Lawrence and you have a group of QB’s that could easily dominate QB scoring in fantasy leagues. As such, it would be wise for you as a fantasy manager to consider drafting a QB known for his rushing ability in the QB5- QB10 range.
In 2020 alone, note the point totals for some of the top-10 QB’s based purely on rushing yards and TD’s:
• QB1 Josh Allen: 421 rushing yards (42.1 points), 8 rushing TD’s (48 points)
• QB3 Kyler Murray: 819 rushing yards (81.9 points), 11 rushing TD’s (66 points) • QB5 Deshaun Watson: 444 rushing yards (44.4 points), 3 rushing TD’s (18 points) • QB6 Russell Wilson: 513 rushing yards (51.3 points), 2 rushing TD’s
• QB7 Ryan Tannehill: 266 rushing yards (26.6 points), 7 rushing TD’s (42 points) • QB9 Justin Herbert: 234 rushing yards (23.4 points), 5 rushing TD’s (30 points)
• QB10 Lamar Jackson: 1005 rushing yards (100.5 points), 7 rushing TD’s (42 points)
Scattered in that list are a number of QB’s that had to throw a large number of TD’s to make up for insignificant rushing yardage or rushing TD’s:
• QB2 Aaron Rodgers: 48 passing TD’s (only 149 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD) • QB4 Patrick Mahomes: 38 passing TD’s (only 308 rushing yards and 2 rushing TD’s) • QB8 Tom Brady: 40 passing TD’s (only 6 rushing yards and 3 rushing TD’s)
Fantasy managers must consider the fact that most QB’s experience TD regression after exceptional years. Regardless of the talent of the arm or on the team, it is rare for a pocket-passer to repeat as a QB1 based on statistical regression from year to year. However, managers can count on rushing QB’s to run on a weekly basis and provide a very safe fantasy floor. Passing TD’s vary from year to year but rushing statistics can be very predictable. For example, QB’s such as Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, and Lamar Jackson can all be projected to run for 400-500 yards and ~5 rushing TD’s every year like clockwork.
In my view, the best approach is to watch for the QB run and take one before the QB10 goes off the board. I would also recommend leaning toward the QB that has running upside over a QB that is purely a pocket passer and depends on overall passing TD’s and yardage to score points. I personally like to take a QB in the 5-8 range based on ADP and rushing ability. The positional talent and depth required to win a fantasy league are often sacrificed by taking that early QB…while your league can also be lost if you wait too long on drafting one in the first place. This isn’t exactly the “late QB” approach, but in my opinion, the numbers support drafting a QB with rushing upside in the 5-10 range for optimal value.