Breaking down our 3M Open DraftKings picks for the PGA DFS slate this week at TPC Minnesota and building a winning lineup.
Yes, it might be the conclusion of major season in golf but there is still money to be made and that starts with this week’s trip to the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities just outside of Minneapolis, MN. It’s not a rich field in terms of the biggest names in golf but it is a great opportunity to eye down the PGA DFS slate and really hone in for your DraftKings picks.
Our final major slate for these DFS picks went well but not great. Our top plays for each pricing range all made the cut and our lineup cashed — but it could’ve been better if we either A. had Cameron Smith included or B. had Rory McIlroy won. Cashing is cashing, though, so we’re trying to keep this train rolling.
As always, we’ll present our top plays and top fades from each pricing tier and then build a lineup for our 3M Open DraftKings picks and tackling the PGA DFS slate this week.
DraftKings picks for the 3M Open PGA DFS lineups: Top Plays
$10,000: Tony Finau ($10,500) – The great debate this week is about whether or not to play Tony Finau in your PGA DFS lineup or not. For me, I’m going to be skipping the three-player $10K range in order to mine value below. However, if you are venturing into this range, then pay up for Finau over Hideki Matsuyama and Sungjae Im. Finau has been striking the ball extremely well but has also found a more consistent putter, a huge key for him. He’s the best player in this field overall but my worry comes from him making the trip over from Scotland and fatigue. Also Consider: None
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BV2f4CrJQU4?feature=oembed
$9,000: Davis Riley ($9,000) – Inject this into my veins. Davis Riley finally got some much-needed rest after his streak of T13 or better finishes ended with a T31 and T64 at the US Open and Travelers. That may be the most important thing as fatigue looked to be taking a toll. His profile, however, has been phenomenal. He’s striking the ball exceptionally well and has been an up-and-down short game player recently. I love that in this tournament and think he gets back to that T13 or better type of showing after his break. Also Consider: Sahith Theegala ($9,800), Maverick McNealy ($9,300)
$8,000: Adam Long ($8,600) – We need to take a little stock of Adam Long coming into this week and I’m a little surprised more people aren’t on him. You start with the recent form as he’s finished in the Top 25 in each of his last three starts and he has a nice profile for this course. He’s gaining strokes in every category except SG: Around the Green, but that’s not a big factor for this event. He’s striking the ball well and putting well also. I love for him to keep that form and put up another good finish this week. Also Consider: Cam Davis ($8,900), JT Poston ($8,500), Martin Laird ($8,200), Nick Hardy ($8,000)
$7,000: Adam Svensson ($7,600) – My outright winner pick this week in the middle of the $7K range? Don’t mind if I do! Entering the tournament with four straight Top 25 finishes that includes a T6 at the Barbasol and having a bit of a break as well, his profile fits this place well. The one concern is he’s not an overly long driver of the golf ball, but he’s fine and it’s not a detriment. More importantly, he’s gaining almost 0.9 strokes per round ball-striking and 0.79 strokes putting as well over his last 20 rounds. That’s money for this type of field and I love him, especially at this price, this week. Also Consider: Chris Gotterup ($7,900), Rickie Fowler ($7,700), Wyndham Clark ($7,500), Tyler Duncan ($7,100), Callum Tarren ($7,00
$6,000: Brandon Hagy ($6,800) – Honestly, I don’t see the need to dip into the $6K range this week. If you need to, though, I’m looking for the all-or-nothing players like Hagy. He’s a bomber who can strike the ball beautifully but struggles with consistency and short game. That leaves a ton of upside, though, which is why I’m looking his way this week. Also Consider: Brandon Matthews ($6,900)
DraftKings picks for the 3M Open PGA DFS lineups: Top Fades
$10,000: Hideki Matsuyama ($10,300) – On one hand, I understand why Matsuyama is in the $10K range based on his overall pedigree. But it’s impossible for me to pay that price given his recent form. Yes, he was T4 at the US Open but has finished T60, DQ, missed cut and T68 in the other four of his last five starts. He doesn’t look like the player we know and I don’t see how he pays off this price with his current form.
$9,000: Adam Hadwin ($9,600) – Even with a missed cut at the John Deere Classic as his last start, people are loving Hadwin this week and I think they’re looking solely at the T7, T35, T18 run he had going into the JDC in addition to his T6 and T4 in past years here and not the stats. Hadwin is an awful fit in his current form for TPC Twin Cities. He’s a short hitter who has lost strokes off the tee and on approach per round over his last 20 rounds and gaining everything with the short game. That’s not the profile to succeed at the 3M Open and he’s a full fade for me this week. I have him to miss the cut.
$8,000: Chez Reavie ($8,700) – Understanding that he’s played pretty well overall lately even before winning the Barracuda last week, Reavie just doesn’t seem like a good fit for TPC Twin Cities and the primary factor is his lack of length off the tee. It’s not a given to win here but it does help tremendously and puts so much pressure on the rest of a players game if he’s at a disadvantage in that area. That’s what I see from Reavie in a rich range, so I’m fading him this week.
$7,000: Jason Day ($7,800) – This isn’t about J-Day as a player. He’s actually shown real flashes at times this season. Unfortunately, it looks as if his health is a factor again as he withdrew from the John Deere Classic and hasn’t played since. Moreover, he missed the cut at the Travelers, so you have to wonder if the back was bothering him there too. That’s too scary in a loaded range, particularly at the top of it, for me to be on him at all this week.
3M Open Open: Best DraftKings golf lineup
- Davis Riley ($9,000)
- Cam Davis ($8,900)
- Adam Long ($8,600)
- Nick Hardy ($8,000)
- Christopher Gotterup ($7,900)
- Adam Svensson ($7,600)
Obviously, we’ve already touched on Riley, Long and Svensson as my top plays from their respective ranges. But what should stand out is how this lineup was built before we get into the other players. I think you can save your money and live in the $8K, high-$7K range and build a nice lineup with a good floor and upside. That’s what we have here.
Davis has been popping a bit late with two straight Top 10s and three of those finishes in his last five starts. The Aussie is finding his game and the results show it. Hardy is in a similar boat as he hasn’t finished worse than T35 in his last five PGA Tour stars and has three Top 15 finishes in that stretch as well. As for Gotterup, that’s an all-upside pick as I’m looking for him to be another bomber off the tee (who happens to be striking his irons and putting well lately) to pop up at the 3M Open again.