The NBA has seven games on tap this Sunday and it’s hard to believe the play-in tournament is less than a month away. Sunday’s slate started at 1 p.m. ET with the Celtics and Hornets. Following that matchup are a couple of mid-afternoon contests between the Suns-Nets and Grizzlies-Blazers.
These games are easily the best Sunday has to offer. Nets All-Star F Kevin Durant (hamstring) is probable to return to play after a six-game absence to face the 2nd-seeded Suns. On the other hand, the Blazers are looking to get back in the win column after losing four straight at home by a combined total of five points.
The games that commence at 7 p.m. ET and later feature three games from the Eastern Conference and a nightcap out West. For today’s props, I’m picking a couple of overs from the Warriors-Kings game, featuring Buddy Hield and Kelly Oubre. To complete the trifecta, I’m going under on Bogdan Bogdanovic’s points, rebounds, and assists line in a home game versus the Bucks.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Bogdan Bogdanovic under 28.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts (-115)
| Bucks vs. Hawks | Hawks +6.5 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Bogdanovic is on fire since being inserted into the starting lineup. His scoring average jumped from 10.6 as a reserve to 18.6 as the Hawks’ newly anointed starting shooting guard. He’s one of the primary reasons why the Hawks catapulted into the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference — winning 10 of their last 13 games. Trae Young remains out with an ankle sprain, and Clint Capela is questionable with a back contusion injury. Thus, leaving Bogdanovic in a key position to keep the good times rolling for Atlanta.
The Serbian guard dropped a hefty 28 points with six rebounds and seven assists 10 days ago against Milwaukee. In his last 10 games, he’s averaging a solid 21.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game. But his last three games have not been as fruitful, averaging 18.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per contest.
The Bucks come into Sunday’s matchup after winning five of their last seven games. According to NBA Advanced Stats, the Bucks rank fifth in the NBA in defensive rating (105.6) and first in net rating (13.6) over that span. Bogdanovic is likely going to serve as the Hawks point guard today, which, in theory, is a positive signal that he’ll have the ball in his hands more often.
Trae Young shot 3-for-17 versus the Bucks 10 days ago, finishing with 15 points, two rebounds, and nine assists. I think a similar fate awaits Bogdanovic since Jrue Holiday’s primary focus will be on stopping him and not Young on Sunday. Bogdanovic will have an uphill battle filling up the box score tonight with the Bucks defense finding its groove. Our projections have Bogdanovic accumulating 24.8 points, rebounds, and assists and a bet quality rating of 9. I’m taking the under on Bogdanovic’s combo line.
Kelly Oubre over 16.5 points (-113)
| Kings vs. Warriors | Warriors -7.5 |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Since returning from a wrist injury that forced the six-year pro to miss five games, Kelly Oubre Jr. has been coming off the bench for the Warriors. It’s not unfamiliar territory for the 25-year-old, as he’s been a spark for second units in four of his six years in the league. However, he came to Golden State as the presumed starting small forward. Despite putting together two 20+ point performances in his last two contests off the bench, injuries may force Oubre back into the starting lineup sooner than expected.
Kent Bazemore and Damion Lee are both out (health and safety protocols), so Oubre is left to play big minutes at small forward tonight. In his first two games against Sacramento this season, Oubre scored 18 and 19 points, respectively.
In addition to his success this season, he averages the fifth-most points per game in his career against Sacramento (14.4). While the 14.4 PPG is relatively low compared to his current market of 16.5, he’s averaged 18 PPG in nine games over the past three seasons when facing Sactown. He also plays well against losing teams. In 20 games this year, he’s averaging 18.0 PPG while shooting 49% from the field and 40% from three-point range versus sub .500 teams.
The Kings destroyed the Warriors 141-119 in their last meeting, so expect the Dubs to come out strong, looking for revenge. After all, the Kings are the worst defensive team in the NBA. According to NBA Advanced Stats, the Kings rank dead last in defensive efficiency in their last five games and over the course of the season.
The Warriors are favored by -7.5 points, and the game total sits at 229.5. Oubre will have plenty of scoring opportunities in a high-tempo matchup with blowout potential. The Kings allow the fifth-highest scoring average to opposing small forwards in the NBA this season (20.7), and according to Fansure, Oubre’s exceeded 16.5 points in nine straight games as a favorite. Our projections have Oubre scoring 19 points tonight with a bet quality rating of 8. His performance history and opportunity make an easy case to go over here.
Buddy Hield over 4.5 rebounds (+122)
| Kings vs. Warriors | Warriors -7.5 |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Hield is the defacto alpha for the Kings, with De’Aaron Fox (health and safety protocols) on the sidelines for the next couple of weeks. He went off for 29 points, six rebounds, and five assists in his last game without Fox, and Hield averages 19.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 3.2 assists in 32 career games when Fox is in street clothes. Why am I attracted to his rebounds line? Mainly because the Kings are 7.5-point dogs, and he’s rebounded well against Golden State in his career.
Hield pulled down six rebounds in three straight games against his Bay Area foe. In 17 games versus the Warriors, he’s averaged 4.6 rebounds per contest, so right at his projected line for tonight. Golden State comes into Sunday, allowing opposing shooting guards to snag 6.7 rebounds per game, tied for 22nd in the league.
Hield also performs better when given more minutes on the floor. When Hield sees more than 30-39 minutes, his rebounding average rises from 4.0 to 5.0. If he gets 40 minutes, that number jumps to 6.0. Golden State is notably vulnerable in the frontcourt. Per NBA Advanced Stats, the Dubs rank 29th in rebounds allowed per game this season.
Hield’s usage rate is 26.7 with Fox inactive so expect him to be heavily involved in all facets of the game while seeing 30+ minutes. It also helps that the Warriors rank second in the NBA in Pace, with both teams ranking in the bottom-10 in points allowed per game. As previously mentioned, the 229.5 game total should bode well for Hield, and according to Fansure, he’s exceeded 4.5 rebounds in each of his last five games on the road against bottom-10 scoring defenses. Our projections have Hield grabbing 5.5 rebounds, and with a bet quality rating of 10, I’m taking the over.